April's labor market experienced a slight cooling, aligning with our predications in last month's briefing. Pay trends diverged notably between the Hospitality sector, which saw a steep decline, and the Warehousing and Logistics sector, which experienced a marginal increase. We attribute this to aggressive inventory management in preparation for potential tariffs. However, with tariff impacts remaining unclear, businesses seem hesitant to increase labor bookings. Instawork's early data for May suggests that a downward trend in pay may increase slightly as a result. You can read more about the Instawork Pay Signal Index methodology here.
Instawork's pay trends data offers valuable insights into how businesses are planning their labor. This report focuses on data spanning April 2024 to May 2025, highlighting patterns and potential impacts for businesses employing hourly workers.
April data confirms our prediction of increased hourly pay for Warehouse Associates, aligning with expanded manufacturing inventories. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve data indicates that 38% of firms reported increased wages and compensation costs in the last three months.
Amidst businesses pulling forward deliveries to mitigate potential tariff impacts, we anticipate continued pay increases at least through the first half of May. While the logistics sector shows growth and increased activity, potential trade policy changes create uncertainty. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index has risen from March but remains in contraction. Companies are adapting their labor strategies by favoring flexible labor to manage risks and meet future demand.
Amid shifting U.S. trade policies consumers anticipated weaker income growth in the year ahead. Consequently, the lack of consistently strong incomes is expected to weaken discretionary spending, affecting labor demand within the hospitality sector. This contributes to the ongoing trend of decreasing pay rates across significant hospitality roles.
Each month, we survey Pros regarding their labor market experiences. Compared to the previous month, Instawork Pros reported greater difficulty in securing both full-time and part-time employment generally. Pros also experienced a significant decline in their ability to find flexible work across various platforms, indicating a tightening labor market beyond certain light industrial areas.
In April, Instawork Pros experienced challenges in securing part-time work for under 30 hours per week. However, they found it comparatively easier to obtain 30 to 40 hours of work, bringing these levels back in line with earlier trends this year.
Unexpected economic or policy changes and rapid shifts in demand can all impact pay trends. Our forecasts are based on current data, and we continuously monitor the market for emerging factors. Make sure to subscribe to Instawork’s Economic Research for the latest analysis and insights into the hourly labor market.
The Pay Signal Index is the weighted ratio of Partners who have increased, decreased or not changed their hourly pay. We've mapped Instawork positions to Census Bureau's occupational groups that are representative of ~42% of US hourly workers. Starting this month, we are presenting reorganized, rebalanced, and re-indexed statistics with April 2024 as their base. You can read more about the Instawork Pay Signal Index methodology here.
